Hurricane season outlook remains average activity

About midway the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters still expect about average activity, though conditions conducive to hurricane development aren’t occurring as quickly as initially expected.
National Weather Service meteorologist Montra Lockwood advises people to be as prepared as possible because it only takes one storm to be potentially devastating. Hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
Lockwood encourages people to be prepared and have a plan of action ready.
There’s a 70 percent chance of 10 to 16 storms in this hurricane season, which is around the average of 12 named storms, Lockwood said. Late August through early October is considered “the prime time to get storms developing,” she said.
Storm development is possible across the entire Atlantic Basin during that time.
A lot of times a tropical disturbance develops right over the Gulf of Mexico. That doesn’t give people as many days to prepare as they would have if a storm develops further out in the Atlantic Ocean, she said.
The past few hurricane seasons have seen below average storm activity in the Atlantic.
Hermine was the eighth named storm so far this Atlantic hurricane season, and is currently going up the East Coast. The storm also hit Florida and reached Category 1 status, Lockwood said.
The National Weather Service had forecast a couple of months ago that the weather pattern was supposed to transition from El Niño to La Niña in the August to October time frame.
La Niña occurs when temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are below normal and is more conducive to producing hurricanes. El Niño suppresses the likelihood of hurricane development.
Forecasters now say La Niña isn’t as likely to occur this fall, though there’s still a 55 to 60 percent chance it could develop during winter. The region currently is neutral, meaning the weather conditions are in between El Niño and La Niña, she said.
La Niña produces less wind shear, which allows for easier storm development.
As of Tuesday morning, there was no storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico, Lockwood said, but there are two disturbances that forecasters are watching.
The first system is moving through the Caribbean and “has a very low chance of developing into a tropical system,” she said. Forecasters expect that system to move to the west.
The second system is just coming off of the coast of west Africa. Over the next five days, the system will be moving into a more favorable environment and has a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical system in the Atlantic Ocean, Lockwood said.