Revenue estimate remains on $600 million shortfall in next fiscal year

The non-partisan Revenue Estimating Conference decided to keep its revenue projections the same Thursday, leaving Louisiana with an underscored $600 million shortfall for the upcoming fiscal year.  
The committee, however, expressed concern about employment numbers, which have been negative for the past few months.  
“Those numbers are probably the scariest from my angle,” said REC chair James Richardson, director of the Public Administration Institute at LSU.  
State economists Greg Albrecht and Manfred Dix projected oil prices $10 to $14 higher than the $30 per barrel estimate set earlier this year, but Albrecht predicts changes in the industry will dampen growth in the long term.  
“The idea that we’re going to go back to $100 a barrel is somewhat far fetched,” Albrecht said, adding that the price might be capped around $50 per barrel in the future.  
Corporate income and franchise taxes are in the black after months of the state paying more to corporations than it collected from those taxes, but the numbers are still below projections.  
Senate President John Alario indicated his support for a special session in June to resolve the $600 million estimated deficit. Some House Republicans are pushing back against a June session, hoping instead for tax collections to pick up and oil prices to rebound before visiting the state’s shortfall sometime in late summer or the fall.  
Gov. John Bel Edwards is adamant about a June session, and it is a near certainty. The REC likely will meet again in June.