Rice import forecast increases

The changes made to the U.S. 2013/14 rice supply and use balances this month are confined to the trade categories and ending stocks. The 2013/14 all rice import forecast is raised 1.0 million cwt to 22.0 million, based largely on the pace of imports reflected in the U.S. Bureau of the Census import data through January-all in medium- and short-grain rice. A large shipment of broken rice from Australia was reported by the Bureau of the Census for December. On the use side, the all rice export forecast is unchanged at 100.0 million cwt; however 1.0 million cwt is shifted from rough rice to milled- and brown-rice (on a roughequivalent basis) export category. No changes are made to the all rice or rice-by-class domestic and residual use projections. All rice ending stocks are projected at 28.3 million cwt, up 1.0 million from a month ago-all in medium- and short-grain rice. Long-grain rice ending stocks are projected at 16.3 million cwt, the lowest stocks since 2003/04. Medium- and shortgrain ending stocks are increased 1.0 million cwt to 9.7 million.

The 2013/14 long-grain season-average price range is forecast at $15.30 to $15.90 per cwt, up 20 cents on each end of the range with the midpoint forecast at $15.60 per cwt-the highest price on record (since 1982/83). The medium- and short-grain season-average price range is forecast at $18.70 to $19.30 per cwt, up $1.50 per cwt on each end of the range with the midpoint forecast at $19.00 per cwt-the highest price since 2008/09. The all rice seasonaverage price range is forecast at $16.30 to $16.90 per cwt, up 60 cents on each end of the range with the mid-point at $16.60 per cwt-the highest price since 2008/09. The reduced prospects for 2014/15 medium- and short-grain production in the Sacramento Valley of California due to drought and reduced irrigation supplies have significantly raised medium grain prices in California. Additionally, old-crop supplies of medium-grain rice in California are drawing down thus tightening the current supply situation. Finally, Australia's drought is also increasing medium-grain prices as Australia is a primary U.S. export competitor. Long-grain rice prices have strengthened as producers in the Delta in 2014 are expected to increase plantings of medium-grain rice and plant less long-grain area, according to trade reports, due to an advantageous price differential between the two rice classes. There are reports that supplies of southern medium-grain rice seed are fairly tight which could restrict this expansion.

Global 2013/14 rice supplies are raised significantly due to several factors including a supply/use series change for Indonesia, and increased production forecasts for Burma, China, and India. World 2013/14 beginning stocks are forecast at 111.0 million tons, up 4.1 million from last month due mostly to increases for Burma, Indonesia, and India. The Indonesia rice supply/use series was modified beginning in 2010/11 based on lower population statistics from the government of Indonesia that indicated lower annual consumption and a corresponding increase in stocks. The Burma rice production estimates beginning in 2010/11 are raised based on a re-evaluation of the series. Burma's 2013/14 rice crop is increased 1.0 million tons to a record 12.0 million-largely due to an increase in area harvested. China's rice 2013/14 production is raised 0.8 million tons to 142.3 million based on official statistics from the government of China. India's rice production is raised 2.0 million tons to a near-record 105.0- million tons based on a report from the U.S. agricultural office in New Delhi. Additionally, India's 2012/13 crop is raised 0.8 million to 105.2 million tons-based on data from the government of India. Indonesia's crop is lowered 0.3 million tons to 37.4 million due to a decrease in area harvested. Sri Lanka's 2013/14 rice crop is also lowered 0.3 million tons to 2.75 million tons.

Global 2013/14 rice consumption is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 474.0 million tons largely due to increases for Burma and India, partially offset by a decrease for Indonesia and Sri Lanka. World 2013/14 rice trade is raised slightly due mostly to an increase for Burma. Global 2013/14 ending stocks are projected at 111.7 million tons, up 6.7 million (+6%) from a month ago, and up 0.7 million from revised 2012/13. The increase in stocks is due mostly to revisions in Burma, China, India, and Indonesia.