Geography, race could alter lt. gov. forecast

Geography, race
could alter
No. 2 forecast
The inclusion of a strong black Democrat or a commanding candidate from north Louisiana could make the early lieutenatn governor lead posted by Jefferson Parish President John Young old news.
That’s the takeaway from a new poll of 600 likely voters conducted April 28-30, and released recently, by Southern Media and Opinion Research.
With a margin of error of +/-4 percent, Young takes the top spot in a three-way GOP trial heat with 32 percent, followed by Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser, 23 percent, and state Sen. Elbert Guillory of Opelousas, 9 percent. Undecided gobbled up 36 percent of participants, a substantial figure.
Guillory was not identified as an African-American to participants and 43 percent of black voters polled were undecided.
Nungesser pulled the highest black vote with 28 percent and would be hurt most by Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden, a Democrat, jumping in.
“The question is whether Kip could do anything in the runoff. He would would certainly make the runoff and kill Nungesser’s chances in the process,” said pollster Bernie Pinsonat.
Pinsonat said he doubted if Guillory could make serious headway in the state’s black communities, or gain any real momentum among white voters, which gravitated most to Young in the poll by 36 percent.
Conducted for his poll subscribers, Pinsonat said the survey only included declared candidates.
Others worth keeping tabs on are Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle of Breaux Bridge, who may be lowering his sights after pondering a run for governor, and State Police Superintendent Mike Edmondson of Baton Rouge.
All of the names mentioned above, though, find their political strongholds south of or in the vicinity of I-10.
While the population numbers favor a contender from the south, the right kind of politico from the piney north could turn this developing race on its ear.

But for now, Young is the man to beat if you believe the polls, with a huge base of support that stretches into New Orleans and what should be an enviable fund-raising operation.
“When all the corruption hit in Jefferson, he emerged as the guy who benefitted the most. He’s taken advantage of it. That’s going to work for him,” said Pinsonat.

They Said It

“I may be wrong but I’m consistent.”
—Rep. Rob Shadoin

***

“I think it slices it, not guts it.”
—Rep. Jay Morris on a proposed amendment

“It guts it like a sac-a-lait on a Friday night.”
—Rep. Gordon Dove

“I like my sac-a-lait whole.”
—Morris

For more Louisiana political news, visit www.LaPolitics.com or follow Jeremy Alford on Twitter @LaPoliticsNow.